Research and Judgment on the Future Situation of Generator Sets

1. Hydropower

Will continue to accelerate the development of the hydropower clean energy that has been developed. Actively and steadily develop hydropower, start the adjustment of hydropower planning on the Yalong River, the upper Yellow River, the Wujiang River and the Hongshui River, and accelerate the construction of leading reservoirs. Hydropower projects currently under construction include the Jinsha River Wudongde, Baihetan, Yalong River Estuary, and Dadu River Shuangjiangkou hydropower stations. The Jinsha River Xulong and other hydropower stations are carrying out preliminary work. With the completion of large and medium-sized hydropower stations, combined with the company's production scheduling plan for the second half of the year, the delivery of hydropower units is expected to be 16 million kilowatts in 2020, which will continue to maintain a substantial growth. It is estimated that the annual bidding for hydropower projects will be about 13 million kilowatts. In the future, new hydropower will be mainly concentrated in Tibet, Yun, Sichuan, and Qinghai, but the development conditions are poor, there are many sensitive factors, and the development burden is heavy. Pumped-storage power stations can effectively play a regulatory role in promoting regional wind, solar and other new energy consumption, and will actively promote the construction of pumped-storage power stations to enhance the capacity of system reserve adjustment. In terms of new technology research and development, high-head and large-capacity units, ultra-high-head impulse turbine generator units, large-scale variable-speed pumped storage units, and seawater pumped storage units are the focus of the company's continued research.

2. Thermal power

In the future, coal-fired power will continue to play its role as a “ballast stone” for power safety. While increasing orderly development, efforts will be made to optimize and upgrade existing units and promote flexible and low-carbon development. This year, we will coordinate the promotion of ultra-low emission retrofits and energy-saving retrofits for existing coal-fired power units. The units in the western region will complete ultra-low emission retrofits before the end of the year; on the basis of power and heat supply, we will continue to eliminate outdated coal-fired units that do not meet the standards. ; Strictly control and promote the construction of coal-fired power projects on demand; strengthen the system's reserve adjustment capacity, and actively promote the flexible transformation of coal-fired power. Combined with the company's production schedule for the second half of the year, it is expected that the delivery of thermal power units in 2020 is 49 million kilowatts. It is estimated that the thermal power project bidding for the whole year will be about 40 million kilowatts. In the future "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is expected to maintain an annual scale of about 30 million kilowatts. With the large-scale development of wind and photovoltaic technologies and the rapid economic growth of wind and photovoltaic power generation, coal power may lose its low-cost advantage. If the cost of carbon emission reduction is taken into account, it will further weaken the market competitiveness of coal power prices. In the future, the speed of transition from coal power to regulated power sources will be faster than expected. The country will increase the flexibility of coal power transformation and the implementation of old generating units transformation projects to promote the gradual transformation of existing coal power from electricity to electricity. With regard to gas turbines, with the in-depth implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's “Two-Engine Special Project” and the in-depth implementation of gas turbine innovation and development demonstration projects of the Bureau of Energy, my country's gas turbine research and development has achieved results. It is planned to complete the development and finalization of 300,000-kilowatt F-class heavy-duty gas turbine products by 2023; to complete the development of 400,000-kilowatt G/H-class products by 2030. High-temperature structural materials and thermal barrier coating technologies need to increase independent research and development efforts to get rid of the situation of relying on imports as soon as possible.

3. Wind power

2020 is the year of sprint before wind power subsidies decline. There is strong demand for wind power installation, but the supply chain of the industry is tight. Since the beginning of 2019, there has been a short-term supply bottleneck for main bearings and castings in the industry, and the shortage of balsa wood has further restricted the growth of wind turbine delivery. The new energy market demand will resume growth in the second half of this year. The construction of centralized wind power, photovoltaic and offshore wind power will be promoted in an orderly manner, and the development of distributed photovoltaic and decentralized wind power in the central, eastern and southern regions will be accelerated; wind power and photovoltaic power generation will be actively promoted on the grid. At the same time, as the 20-year service life of wind turbines approaches, a large number of decommissioned units will appear in the country, and the market potential for retiring and renewing old units is great. In the future, wind power equipment manufacturers should concentrate their efforts on solving the shortcomings of key parts and components, and further promote the sound development of my country's wind power industry. 3.0MW units have become mainstream onshore units. At this stage, the more mature 4.0MW~6.0MW offshore wind turbines are still the main choice for developers. At the same time, Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligent, and Dongfang Electric have also won the bids of 7.0MW, 8.0MW, and 8.0MW. For 10MW offshore wind turbines, developers are gradually considering larger MW offshore wind turbines.

4. Nuclear power

At present, there are few orders for nuclear power projects of enterprises. With the uncertainty of the approval of projects in the second half of the year and in the future, nuclear power equipment enterprises will face the problem of further capacity emptying. Most nuclear power equipment manufacturing companies have difficulties in operating, and it is difficult to stabilize the talent team that meets the requirements of nuclear power equipment processing. In terms of the technical route of large-scale nuclear power plants, the "Hualong No. 1" and CAP1400 will be the main reactors built by my country's nuclear power plants.

The "Hualong No. 1" that may be put into commercial operation in 2020 will play a very good role in promoting the subsequent project approval and the "going global" of my country's nuclear power. Small reactors have room for further improvement in terms of system simplification, and will be more used in combined heat and power, district heating, and seawater desalination in the future. At present, efforts should be made to strengthen the cultivation of the domestic nuclear power industry chain and accelerate the promotion and application of localized equipment. Deploy in advance the research and development of key technologies and equipment for the fourth-generation reactors and small reactors, and at the same time increase research on some "stuck-necked" key technologies, core components and raw materials, and support domestic enterprises with potential supply capabilities in terms of policies and funds, and strive to Occupy the world's leading position in the next round of nuclear energy competition.

5. Export

The current epidemic has led to a further decline in global economic growth and a further slowdown in the growth rate of infrastructure construction. The development of the export market for power generation equipment has been greatly affected. However, expanding overseas markets is the only way for power generation equipment companies to transform. Especially for traditional power generation equipment, domestic demand is relatively saturated, and further attention needs to be paid to the international market. In the future, it is necessary to accelerate the integration of domestic and international industrial standards for power generation equipment, deepen cooperation with Asia, Africa, and Latin America, enhance international influence and competitiveness, fill up domestic production vacancies, and enable the stable, sound and sustainable development of the power generation equipment industry. With the in-depth implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the establishment of a bilateral and multilateral energy cooperation mechanism will help enterprises to open up markets.